Apr 112020
 

Here are some resources I depend on to update my understanding of this pandemic. (For more of an intro, see this page.)

First, the numbers:

Authoritative Twitter sources I read religiously:

  • Scott Gottlieb (previous FDA Commisssioner) is not so secretly perhaps the most influential person right now in how the US is responding — POLITICO calls him the “Shadow Czar.” His tweets are extremely informational and well thought-out. Definitely read all the AEI reports he links to: https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMDBob Wachter is head of UCSF Dept of Medicine. He does a daily recap thread in the evening that is superb — I look forward to it now every evening: https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter
  • Andy Slavitt (former CMS head; former head of Optum) does a great job of telling stores across the US: https://twitter.com/ASlavitt. It’s quite informational, and also often brings a very human aspect to the updates. Like Wachter, he does a daily evening thread that I strongly encourage you read. He also has a COVID-19-focused podcast that tells a lot of these human stories: http://www.westwoodonepodcasts.com/pods/in-the-bubble-with-andy-slavitt/
  • I’ve also curated my own own Twitter list containing the above accounts and many more: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1239042160483110912

Here are 4 quantitative models that are good to check and play with to get an idea of estimates. Please note the end date of these models.

Here’s a weekly survey of epidemiology experts on their numerical predictions: https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/

Some medical/research sources:

Mar 152020
 

(updated Mar 30 15:58 ET)

It’s a challenge even for me, as someone deep in the healthcare world, to wrap my head around what is happening and how to think about the COVID-19 pandemic. Where is it? How bad is it? What are the symptoms? Is it getting better? How are we responding (or not)? Who should I trust?

I’ve therefore collected some resources here that I’ve found helpful.

Contents: The Daily Update | Overviews | Interventions | Updates | Bay Area | DC/DMV | Biology

The Daily Update

I browse to these sites once a day to get a clear, data-driven, and hype-free update:

Overviews

I would be remiss if I didn’t first note the WHO’s official page on COVID-19, as well as the (US) CDC’s, and the federal response. If you are traveling, the DHS updates are probably relevant.

Thorough lay overview: Max Roser’s team’s overview of the COVID-19 is the best lay overview I’ve found.

Medical/Bio overview: This March 13 briefing from the Lin Lab (Stanford Neurobiology) is an incredibly thorough, but still concise, survey of COVID-19, aimed at people with at least a basic biology/genetics/medicine background. Even if you do not have that background, it’s still worth reading if you are willing to do do some Googling of terms and Wikipedia digging. If you’re biologically inclined though, and you can only read one thing from this page in detail, this deck would be it.

Clinical presentation of COVID-19: A quick graphical overview of the clinical side of COVID-19.

Understanding exponential growth: These two 3Blue1Brown videos give a basic intuition for why exponential growth is terrifying. Once you have a good sense for exponential growth, see these charts from the Financial Times to understand why bringing down the growth rate is important.

Summary and line listing of all US/Canada cases: And this is the best summary of US/Canada cases I’ve found, with a line list of every single case, with reference: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

The classic Johns Hopkins dashboard (and data): And this is the (by now quite well-known) map and summary of cases around the world from Johns Hopkins. For those of us that are data analysis-inclined, the raw data can be found on their Github: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

Interventions

More lag-aligned Stats: This page from Algebris succinctly presents the growth of the number of cases in Italy and Wuhan, and plots the progression of cases for other select nations (including the US) aligning by the lag in number of days behind Italy, and normalizing for population. The clear bad news is that all western countries are pretty closely tracking Italy at the moment. ThisOurWorldInData chart shows why public health interventions are effective.

Hospital Capacity Dangers: When will your hospitals run out of room and fatalities likely increase? It’s unfortunately likely not a question of “if” anymore. This interactive ProPublica article does a great job of letting you see different scenarios across any city across the US.

Social distancing simulation: This page from the Washington Post cleverly and graphically simulates what can happen with different levels of social distancing. (h/t Ajay Sudan)

More advanced simulation: And if you want to do a more advanced simulation with all the knobs, this is a great epidemic simulator: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Hospital and ICU capacity: Irrational fear isn’t helpful, but if you made it this far, this paper will help you understand why the current population-wide measures are necessary. To put it more simply, in Wuhan, at its peak, even with Chinese draconian measures, “2,087 patients (2.6 per 10,000 adults) needed critical care per day.” The entire US ICU capacity is only 1.4 per 10,000. Unless we are able to fill that gap, or ensure we don’t go over 1.4, those patients are likely to die.

Hope: This editorial from a large number of American illustrious healthcare leaders is super practical and is a glimmer of hope.

Live Updates

WSJ Live Updates: The Wall Street Journal has lowered the paywall for the Coronavirus live coverage page.

Curated Twitter lists: I’ve created a Twitter list of those I trust with the latest news. Daniel Swain (of the Weather West blog) also has a Twitter list, with a slightly more scientific bent.

Bay Area-specific Information

All of California is now under a shelter in place order, unless you are in communications, healthcare/public health, chemical, critical manufacturing, commercial facilities, dams, defense industrial base, dmergency services, energy, financial, government facilities, food & agriculture, critical IT, Nuclear Reactors, Transportation, or Water, in which case you should see this CISA Critical Infrastructure page for more information.

Overall, the California order is really confusing, so I’d recommend reading the county-by-county FAQs I posted below, especially the Shelter-in-Place FAQ of San Mateo County.

The Bay Area is under a Shelter in Place order. (h/t Mackenzie Bohannon)

Summary: NBC Bay Area has a great summary page of Bay Area COVID-19-related news, including a listing of cases.

CA State: The California Department of Public Health’s page on COVID-19 is here. Everyone in California should probably read this page.

Your county: For Bay Area counties, here are the county-specific pages. Most are in line with the state, but a few counties have issued orders above and beyond the state-wide orders:

DMV-specific Information

The DMV area has piecemeal response, from DC’s mass gathering >50 ban and closure of restaurants and bars, to Virginia’s state-wide ban on groups >10 to

Case summaries: A listing of every DMV area case, collated by Alejandro Alvarez of WTOP.

Your county: For each individual district/county/city:

For Bio Folks and Wonks

Healthcare policy effects: The Kaiser Family Foundation’s ongoing stream on COVID-19, with their usual focus on healthcare policy and payments policy: https://twitter.com/i/events/1237433774322802688

Deeper medical/bio overview: This 1.5hr video of the March 20 UCSF Grand Rounds goes quite deep into the background, epidemiology, clinical presentation, public health interventions, and relevant drug targets and efforts under way. Best medical overview out there. This 1.5hr video of the March 12 Partners/MGH Grand Rounds

Test sensitivity & specificity: Data on the sensitivity/specificity of what I believe are the current tests, though it’s challenging to know. I will do more research on this.

South Korean Test: The protocol for the South Korean test is in this paper.

Conserved regions in SARS-CoV-2 genome: A Mar 13 paper on variation analysis performed on the SARS-CoV-2 genome, in the hopes of establishing a better reference sequence, and by corollary, of being able to design primers and probes with greater sensitivity when used in sequence-based tests.

Effective Drugs?: Another Mar 13 paper proposing potential effective drugs including remdesivir and a host of common HIV antiretrovirals, as well as interferon-beta.

Avoid drugs upregulating ACE2: Drugs that upregulate ACE2 (including ibuprofen) may contribute to the virulence of this coronavirus, per this paper in the Lancet.

Undetected cases: A model predicting that 86% of cases were undetected in Wuhan before travel restrictions were implemented and wide testing began. I have some disagreements with some assumptions in this model, but it’s still well-done paper, and, again, means we should get widespread testing ASAP. This video I posted earlier (at 9:45) suggests we have 50x more than reported.

Krammer’s ELISA test: The paper detailing the first validated serological test for SARS-CoV-2.

If you live in UK and know how to run qPCR: And if you are in the UK and can run qPCR, please see this request for help.

Apr 152017
 

Tomorrow is one of the most important votes in Turkish history — a vote on the referendum on the Constitution of Turkey to transform it from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. I was woefully ignorant about it until today. Here are some of my thoughts about it.

I’d be lying if I said that this huge vote was on my mind as I flew here for my long weekend holiday. In actuality, I’d completely forgotten about it until an excitable merchant at a kebap stand started engaging with me about it over my order at lunch. So now, it’s the eve of the vote, and I’m now sitting here in Istanbul at a rooftop terrace bar overlooking the Hagia Sophia, and reading anything I can get my hands on, while engaging random locals on their thoughts.

Western media nearly unanimously portray this referendum as a power grab by Erdo?an. It’s an amazing thing when everyone from the Wall Street Journal to Haaretz to Fox News to the Washington Post to the Guardian are adamantly in the “No” camp. The only English articles I can find adamantly on the Yes camp in a major media source are these op-ed from Erdogan appointees.

A rare few somewhat balanced analyses exist.

This sounds like an open-and-shut case.

Still, I did some more reading about this, and the picture is a bit more complicated than it first appears. There are many orthogonal issues here, from the representativeness of a constitution that was formed after a military coup, to the authoritarian tendencies of Erdo?an, to alleged suppression of speech by the “Yes” camp, to the debate of a parliamentary vs presidential political system, to, of course, the merits of the articles of this referendum itself.

First, on the merits of the articles in the referendum itself — I think it’s actually very reasonable. If you were to hand the full text of the referendum to someone without mentioning that it was from Turkey, it sounds unremarkable; perhaps the most remarkable part is the similarity it bears to many other constitutions of presidential systems, especially that of the US. Like the American system, the articles under the referendum would get allow the president to remain in a political party (which he currently cannot), would give the president official executive powers, would let the president select members of the judiciary, would let the legislative branch override vetoes and any executive actions, and would give official impeachment powers (termed “investigation” here) to the legislature. From the viewpoint of a staunch parliamentarian, this does seem like an extreme shift away from the parliament at the center of the State, but in the global view, this is definitely not as atypical as many news outlets make it out to be — the executive does get more power, but the power it will retain is similar to that most presidential systems, and with similar legislative and judicial checks. There are differences, however, which should give pause, even given this zero-context framework. Most concerning to me, unlike the US, Turkey does not seem to have as strong a concept as in the US of enumerated powers, where the State may only exercise powers strictly enumerated by the Constitution. To affirm that concept, the US also has the tenth amendment, explicitly limiting the power of the central government. However, Turkey is not a federal system, and hence cannot have the equivalent of the tenth amendment. This may lead to easier centralization of powers by the central government, though notably not necessarily by the executive.

Still, if we were voting purely on merits though, and if this were the basis for the constitution of a new country, this sounds like a yes to me.

Now, on to factors beyond the articles being voted on.

The first is that the current constitution is one that was ratified in a referendum during the military government in 1982. Several referendums have reduced the influence of the military on government, especially in the massive referendum of 2010, which brought many parts of the Constitution in line with EU standards in a step to move toward EU membership. However, as a result of the history of this Constitution, it would seem that many in Turkey (and certainly, as a proportion, more than in most EU countries, and tremendously more than in the US) see this document as an evolutional journey toward democracy rather than an unchangeable fundamental foundation of the country. Talking with people here, both those who say they are voting “yes,” and those who declared are voting “no” have had the mindset of the constitution as malleable — the “yes” camp with the attitude that we’re moving to a more streamlined and modern presidential democracy, and the “no” camp saying that these aren’t the right changes. Very few people I talked to thought that the Constitution was working fine and shouldn’t be touched.

The most important factor though is obviously Erdogan himself, who has dramatically centralized powers around himself in the last decade, but especially after the attempted coup. He has used those powers (under the ever-extending state of emergency) to crack down on political enemies, curtail the free press, whittle away at the rule of law, and promote an unrelenting nationalism. It is through that lens that this referendum must be viewed, and the updated image is definitely darkened a few stops. With the legislature controlled by Erdogan’s party (though he officially is not a member), he can do significant damage and consolidate power even more before the next election occurs, by which time he could have made it all but an impossibility for various branches of the government to realistically provide checks on the others due to new rules, interpretations, and loopholes. Of course, the president and legislature will be voted on directly, so the electorate can theoretically simply vote out the current government.

Finally, there’s the issue of media suppression — the “yes” camp has brought all the powers of government to bear, up to and including using highly questionable decisions of who can use state media to promote their messages, and which free speech and foreign campaign laws it should enforce. Those on the “no” camp have been arrested, though in the current climate of law-and-order, it can be hard to tease apart what part of the arrest was related to the referendum directly, and what part was for other political trespasses. (Both are inexcusable of course.)

So, taking it all together, I think the real question is — can an improved constitution succeed despite the initial executive under that new constitution who shows every sign of abusing it and contorting it to guarantee his own power, and also that of his party’s?

I think I’m conflicted after reading about vote, and talking to people about it.

I’d like to hold on to optimism and believe that a reasonable constitution combined with an engaged electorate will result in reasonable governance and self-correcting behavior. But seeing the rise of frightening populist nationalism around the world, I’m no longer sure that that is a tenable belief.

This vote unfortunately seems to be lose-lose for Turkey. A “yes” vote means Erdogan would gain significantly more power, and can easily consolidate even more power in the next 2 years before the next election. A “no” vote means the current system, which many think are broken, will continue, with a stronger case for Erdogan to rule by emergency rules and decrees.

I await tomorrow.

Jan 172017
 

On 2-6 of January, I was up in Finnmark, Norway with Christian Monaghan and Alex Prokop for a few days of dogsledding.

Specifically, our home base was Engholm Lodge near Karasjok, Finnmark, which, perhaps not coincidentally, holds the record coldest temperature in Norway at -51.4ºC.

The serenity, the feeling of oneness you experience gliding through the soft, white, crunchy desolation with the dogs is nothing like I’ve ever experienced. The deafening quiet, the unwavering untouched snowfields, the full inch of hoarfrost forming on the dwarf birches and reindeer fences, the single ptarmigan pecking at berries, and of course, the team of powerful, friendly, empathic huskies that become at once your family, your engine, and your link and protection with and from your mostly inhospitable surroundings.

Speaking of the dogs, they are all Alaskan huskies, which are not a pure breed per se, but instead a mix of a variety of high latitude dogs (Siberian huskies, malamutes), occasionally bred with other breeds like pointers, hounds, and shepherd for speed and trainability. They have relatively dense, but short hair to keep cool while running, and have peak metabolism and comfort at around -15ºC. They are unbelievably lean and muscular.

For our sled teams, we had eight dogs per team, pulling two sleds. On lakes, rivers, and other tree-less flats, the going was easy — just need do a few dozen squats every so often to stay warm. In hilly or brushy terrain, things were a bit more interesting. On uphill, and especially in less compacted snow, the dogs usually need a bit of help getting up, which I was more than happy to oblige via some running and pushing of the sled; it was a great way to stay warm. When I fail to notice the dogs struggling uphill, they would make it obviously known by looking back at me cheekily, as if saying “Hey man, you gonna help or not?” In downhills and brush, the sledding took a surprising amount of athleticism — staying balanced mostly on one foot while stepping on a spiked metal bar that acts as a brake with just enough pressure to keep tension on the line — around the same amount of effort as skiing down a bumpy green slope. In forested areas, you have the added problem that the train can be overgrown, so not infrequently a large branch threatens to clothesline you at head or torso height, leaving you still trying to balance and keep your foot gently on the brake, but now also squatting at the same time.

Here’s a photo of the dog teams at around high noon.

And here’s our team riding through the birch forest.

We started our journey from Engholm Husky Lodge, and then stayed two nights at the Ravnastua mountain outpost for two nights. Both of these locations have souls and are stories in and of themselves — I’ll go into that later.

As you can see, there are no driving directions from Engholm Husky Lodge to Ravnastua:

In fact, to even get to the Engholm Lodge, we flew into Oslo, stayed there overnight, took another flight to Alta, then took a 4 hour bus, followed by a pickup from Kenny (who works at Engholm) for the last 7km. The return ended up being significantly more convoluted.

But upon arrival, we were treated to this.

I didn’t even realize what was happening at first — a thin white vertical stream of light was off in the distance, approximately in the direction of Karasjok, so I assumed it was a spotlight. But after a few minutes of staring, I realized that it was dancing, that it was bending. Another string of light appeared alongside it immediately after, and within a few more minutes, it was as if an invisible force has stretched out the fibers of the string so it was now a hundred thin strands shooting up into the sky. A whole wispy blueish-green band was emerging from the other stream, like a dream-like green rain.

I stayed out until I could no longer feel my hands. It was only -11ºC at the time (which the locals would pronounce “eleven” — no need for the minus sign), and couldn’t quite comprehend how it could get another 28 degrees colder by the next evening.

We soon had dinner at the dining lodge, prepared by our spectacular host and guide, Christel.

We then got equipped with homemade reindeer skin jackets, military surplus polar gloves, polar boots, and various other items. A common refrain from Christel was “What did you bring?” “Uhh…these jackets/socks/gloves” “Oh that’s rubbish — here, use these.” I threw a small mental celebration when my Patagonia mountaineering pants passed the test.

After the 10-below fitting room experience, we retreated to our cabin, did a bit of packing and cleanup, stoked the fire, then went to bed.

The next morning, after we harnessed our dog teams, with all the dogs excitedly yipping and howling in a mass cacophony of joy and anticipation (except for the dozen or so left behind who were whining and barking saying “Pick me! Pick me!”), we get a short lesson about how to drive a dog team. I was honestly a combination of excited given Christel’s highly encouraging words, and anxious given that she also said “the first 500m has everything — speed, tight corners, downhill, trees.”

The group of 10 of us (8 starry-eyed visitors and 2 guides) set off at around 10AM, just as the sky ignited from midnight blue to manganese pinkish-purple. “People believe the wrong thing about us; that we don’t see sun in the winter,” stated Christel emphatically. “But there is more than enough light to go out every day. And you can only see this amazing sky on the coldest winter days.” It was dusk by 2PM.

We stopped at around 1PM for a quick lunch. Christel and Ingrid, our two guides, built the fire from some fallen wood that they stripped with their knives for kindling, and subsequently lit with a single match. “It would be too embarrassing to use a second match.”

We sat on reindeer skins, thawed out our frozen sandwiches, thawed out our hands and feet, had some hot water, and remarked to each other, as our eyes were watering from the smoke from being too close to the fire, that we were actually in the remote wilderness, dogsledding.

At around this time you start developing a personal bond with each of your dogs as well. You feel the pull of their intent stares, and they come to you when you’re near, to pull off the ice on their faces, to play, or just for a hug.

A sad part of this is that some dogs have blood on their faces by the end of the day. The dogs are strapped in with a body harness (synthetic fibers), and a neck line (either metal, or natural fibers). As the dogs heat up when running, some of the dogs will start hanging their tongues out, and, inevitably, their tongue will swing into the path of the metal neck line. The schoolyard prank of licking the frozen flagpole is real. And this is no different. The tongue will get stuck, and upon pulling it away, the dog will get a surface wound. This is what causes dogs to end the day looking like this (it looks far worse than it actually is).

We set off again after lunch as we get into the “afternoon.”

By the time it’s starting to get to headlamp territory, we arrive at Ravnastua, the remote outpost/cabin where we’d stay for the next two nights.

Ravnastua is maintained by Oskar, a quiet, friend, but eccentric man who was born in this remote outpost, and whose family has maintained this outpost for many generations. His main modes of transportation are snowmobile (or, “scooter” if you’re Scandinavian, and “snow machine” if you’re Alaskan), and the gyrocopter. He powers everything via hydroelectric generator he installed under the river ice himself, and also built the web site linked above. He likes interesting visitors and a good whisky, and jokes that we should fill in interesting professions like “astronaut” in the guestbook for fun. He also has that arctic Nordic spirit and work ethic — each day, he would light and stoke our five wood-burning stoves so that our cabin would be warm by the time we arrived (and we did regard -5ºC as warm by that evening).

And by 5PM, after we’d given the dogs a snack, put on their jackets, taken them out of their harnesses, and pushed our gear to the cabin, we walked outside to the pitch black. Except as soon as our eyes adjusted, we realized it was far from black.

I stared until my camera succumbed to the cold. It took only an hour. It was another hour before it warmed up enough to view again.

In the small cabin, our bedroom became the dining room and communal room, and we had a dinner of poached salmon and boiled greens. And, of course, plenty of crackers with enormous amounts of butter, brown cheese, and lingonberry jam. Best way to stay warm.

After dinner, we feed the dogs. We have several 20kg bricks of frozen meat (frozen because of the ambient temperature, not because we necessarily want it frozen). We chop it with an axe into 16 portions and feed these to the dogs (these photos are from the next morning when there was enough light for photos).

I decided to visit the dogs again after the feeding.

These dogs have quite a view sleeping outside. (I’d join them outside the next night.)

The trees looked as if they were craning their necks to catch a glimpse of the mystical light.

Starry, starry night.

But once again, the cold got to me (I wasn’t wearing my reindeer skin by that point), and I retreated to the relative warmth of the cabin. 30 minutes of conversation and 30 pages of writing later, I fall asleep.

Morning comes.

Christel says hi to her dogs.

We feed them again.

We shovel up their poop.

By the time we harness the dogs, they are howling and yipping again, ready and excited to run.

On day 2 of mushing, it’s significantly colder this time. We learn about all the things that can freeze. Like my scarf, which feels like a cheap brittle (frozen) plastic toy before 30 minutes is up.

Handwarmer packets freeze, and only manage to heat things up to around -25ºC. My phone charger cable froze and snapped. Both my camera and phone died within an hour of being outside. I only got three photos that day. Here’s the reindeer fence.

But I had learned a valuable lesson–if I kept my sandwiches in my innermost fleece layer (I had 3), it would only be partially frozen by the time I took it out.

We got home past dark that evening. I fell into the role of keeping everyone’s fires going to warm up the place. Eventually, the centimeter of ice on the triple-paned windows defrosted, and I declared my work a success. And so we had a dinner of reindeer heart stew, made by Christian, Christel, and Ingrid.

After dinner, Christel and Ingrid went to inspect the dogs’ paws, and applied ointment when necessary.

And later that evening, we got a spectacular show. The entire sky filled with light — greens and blues and magentas — all billowing in ribbons, or streaming down like fireworks. You could stand and look up and spin in circles and see ten different patterns all surrounding you, enveloping you, playfully pricking you with a thousand intertwining threads of green silver.

Everyone came out to watch. We were hardened by that point, daring to stand outside in the -35 with only 3 layers of warmth.

The aurora continued so vividly that I decided to sleep outside. Two skins and a mummy bag (and 3 layers of wool pants, 4 layers of tops, a hat, and 3 socks) kept me reasonably warm throughout the night. The dogs would howl in unison every hour or two, which would wake me up, and upon waking up (and blinking a few times to get the ice crystals off my eyelashes and contacts), I’d see the northern lights still keeping watch on the glistening landscape. This was perhaps my personal highlight.

The next morning, after breakfast, we did more feeding, more poop scooping, more harnessing.

And before we knew it the dogs were yipping again, ready to go. One dog even broke his harness jumping in place so much.

We were back to the Engholm Husky lodge after sunset. After some cleanup, unharnessing of the dogs, and playing with the dogs, we went into the workshop where we were treated to hot waffles make by Kenny.

The workshop, perhaps more than any other building, symbolized the dedication, resourcefulness, and love that permeates this place. The workshop is built by hand. To hang up your jackets, you put your jacket on this handbuilt pulley system. There, on the wall is stored every hand tool you can imagine, and jars of every odd screw, nut, and bolt you could need. And in one corner, hanging and on a tackboard, various odds and ends from Sven Engholm’s illustrious dogsledding career.

Incredibly, Sven has won the European equivalent of the Iditarod, the Finnmarksløpet, 11 times. He is a legend. He started working on these lodges back in 1979, and has designed and built each one of the cabins himself. Every nook and cranny has significant thought and effort put into it by Sven and Christel. The wine glass hangers are made from twine and knots. The clock is handmade. The lampshade is stretched…stomach? The kitchens are all reclaimed wood and angle ground river rock. Used sleds and old animal skins dot the place. It’s incredibly inviting and natural.

Even their training with the dogs can be highly non-traditional. They take the dogs on an island dog vacation every year, where they can roam free, and also go through swim training.
I walk out of the workshop to our cabin amazed.

So, in our last evening there, we relax, sit in the sauna, make 2-3 half-naked snow angels in the bitter cold, run screaming into the sauna again, then eventually retire to our soft beds in the cabin, luxuriating in the warm -5ºC air, and dream of the last few days of mystical greenish-silver tranquility, of the blank snowy canvas so even and surreal that you can’t help but think about how the world got so full. And as the dogs howl again, I experience a wave of nostalgia of the present, wishing that I could stay here for a few more days, weeks, months.

It was an unforgettable adventure in the taiga.

I will return.

Dec 032014
 

For Thanksgiving, we embarked on a hiking trip through Cottonwood and Marble Canyons in Death Valley National Park. It was an orienteering hike, in that there was no signage the entire way, and we would have to depend on old fashioned maps and compass most of the way. In addition, there was no guarantee that would be water through the 4-day hike, so I ended up carrying 11 liters in.

Here’s the National Park Service info page on the hike, and below is a topo of the two canyons.

View Larger Map

If you’re going to do the hike, I’d recommend these maps: Cottonwood Canyon 7.5′ USGS Topo 2012, Harris Hill 7.5′ USGS Topo 2012, East of Sand Flat 7.5′ USGS Topo 2012, Marble Canyon 15′ USGS Topo 1951. You can get them for $8 each at your local USGS store or get them online. However, what I did was just print out each map as 9 sheets of letter (8.5×11) paper, in a grid of 3×3. Then you can label each one as CC(1,1) (top-left Cottonwood Canyon Map), CC(1,2) (top-center Cottonwood Canyon Map), HH(1,1) (top-left Harris Hill Map), etc. I then put each one in a plastic paper slip, then labeled each in order of the trail. If you just want to copy the order you’ll need the maps, it’s CC(1,2), CC(2,2), CC(2,1), CC(3,1), HH(3,3), HH(2,3), CC(2,1), CC(1,1), CC(1,2).

I’ve also included the images of the maps I annotated with the actual trail at the bottom of this post, as well as the GPS files. If you used this to help plan your trip, please email me to tell me how it went!

The road there is along Cottonwood Canyon Rd, a pretty sandy dirt road that was just freshly graded when we were there, after having been completely washed away by the flash floods last summer.

The first few miles is along a 4×4 road. We took a lazy morning and started the hike in the early afternoon. You’re going to head for that gap in the photo.

It’ll be pretty obvious when you go through the neck of the pass to the other side. When you do, looking left, you’ll see the rather gradual start to Cottonwood Canyon:

Here’s our camp for the first night, just before the trail narrows considerably.

Morning of day 2, we were walking in some sweet granite and monzogabbro canyons.

There were also a ton of these striated rocks. I’m no geologist, but would love to know how this formed.

Nearing the enc of the open dry wash, we spotted a tone that looks unusually like the stones in the Racetrack Playa

Eventually, the “road” ended, even though it had long ceased to be traversable by any car that I’d drive.

Note for future hikers. Soon after you pass this, there will be some very thick brush. Head left up to higher ground an avoid the seemingly semi-traversable low forward route. (It’s where Jessa’s going in this photo.)
H92A6911

After being in the dry brush for so long, it was a visual shock to be among trees:

Water! I guess there was no need to pack in 11 liters, but better to have been safe than sorry!

You’ll keep heading up, traversing some pretty sandy and sketchy terrain, and eventually climb this relatively steep pass:

Over the top, down into a small valley, through a ton of horse shit, and up a small hump, you’ll reach the other side!

For the spring, look down toward the oasis, and head for the very top of it. It’s on the right edge in this photo. Once you head down, you’ll see a slight clearing, where you can actually reach the small stream.
H92A6944

We rested here for a bit, then pushed forward into the large valley. We were a little confused about where to go, but really, just turn right in the first creekbed (or any creekbed). Once you’ve gained just a bit of elevation, it’s painfully obvious where the large long valley is. It’s so long in fact that it’s deceiving to the eyes. You feel like you can cross it in an hour, but it will take quite a bit longer…

We camped halfway up. We’d climbed to close to 4000ft by then, so by sunset, the temperature was already around 45, and it was close to or below freezing at night.

It was Thanksgiving, so we ate some freeze-dried turkey tetrazzini. Yum.

Next morning, gorgeous sunrise:

This next pass is the trickiest to hit, and pretty easy to get wrong. It’s the low point at the middle of the photo below. As tempting as it is, do not try to slowly climb and traverse; it turns out to be a lot easier to just hang low until you’re almost perpendicular to the pass, then go straight up the gully. Also, probably pretty obvious, but do not get tempted by just continuing up the valley that slightly curves left. When you see the end of the valley, hang right into this discreet pass.

When you reach the pass, it’ll look like this. Just go up any way you wish.

 

We started from around sea level, but at the top of this, we found snow!


Once you go over the crest, you’ll see a high valley in a sort of saddle shape. It’s a bit confusing where to go from here, but with some compass work, you’ll find that you essentially want to stay on the left-side hill of the saddle, and go over the ridge right in front of that hillock. Honestly, this was the trickiest part of the hike, and with “Dead Horse Canyon” directly to the right of you, we felt it was worth doing some careful orienteering to figure out where we were going.

Once you reach that second ridge, you’ll see what’s obviously the start of Marble canyon. It’s a very steep descent, so stay on the ridge as you go down. You’ll see a continuation of the ridge to the right. Definitely take it. You’ll need to do some brush scrambling near the bottom, but it most definitely beats just going straight down.

Skeletons!

You end up walking in a narrow canyon for quite a while. If you’re averse to narrow passageways or getting your ankles mercilessly cut up by shrubbery, this may not be the best hike for you. However, if you do get over those obstacles, you suddenly happen upon the entrance of Marble Canyon proper:

It was unbelievable.

After a few more miles of hiking on the narrow canyon trail, we saw a mini-steppe about twice the height of me, where ancient floods had carved a flat platform perfect for camping.

Next morning, after 2 more miles, we exited the canyon into the rough gravel that we started on. Another mile or two later, we hit the old sign that marked the crossroad we had hit 3 days ago to start our journey:

A few miles later, we spot Taiiiga! (Taiiiga==my car)

 

This was the most serene backpacking trip I’ve done to date. On the entire hike, we saw 3 people, one doing an intense hike the other direction, and the other two doing a day hike in as we were heading out. The vastness and grandeur of the semi-arid highland chaparral just cannot be expressed in words–you walk, step by step, and many shrubs and hours and skeletons and ancient dried-up rivulets later, you realize that the golden-blue pass you’re aiming for has only processed minutely closer.

This must have been what it was like when Earth was young.

Jan 062013
 

Back in November, I took a two-week vacation down to Argentina and Patagonia.

I’ve finally uploaded the photos online.

Please go view the full album here!

Some selected ones below:
Butterflies in Iguazu:

Iguazu Falls Panorama:

Perito Moreno Glacier:

Torres del Paine:






Bariloche:

Recoleta Cemetary:

Sep 212012
 

It’s pretty annoying supporting both Windows and Linux systems. One of the things that comes up over and over is line endings. You’re about to run a script, and immediate get an error about the bash command not found or something bizarre like that.

Fortunately, there are easy ways to fix this.
(note, in the following, to type the ^M character, you’ll actually be typing ^V^M)

Solution 1: use sed

sed s/^M//

Solution 2: use the same replacement string in vim

:%s/^M//g

Solution 3 (the really easy way): Use the dos2unix command that comes with most *nix distros:

dos2unix